Jonathan Rizzo, Warning Coordination Meteorologist with the National Weather Service in the Florida Keys, joined Good Morning Keys on KeysTalk 96.9/102.5FM this morning to talk about the potential incoming weather.
Tropical storm Helene is expected to become a hurricane.
Rizzo said, “Helene is at the top end of a tropical storm, is expected to become a hurricane almost at any time now today, and is moving generally toward the north right now, just passing Cozumel, and is going to be entering the Gulf of Mexico, well to the southwest of the Florida Keys. It’s expected to make a North Northeastern and actually will undergo rapid intensification tonight and tomorrow as it goes through the eastern Gulf. Now what that means for us is and of course, we have tropical storm warnings issued for all the Florida Keys at this time, we’re expecting the weather to gradually worsen as the day goes on, with tropical storm force winds reaching the Key West area, probably near or shortly after midnight tonight, and then spreading up the Keys as we go through the early morning hours tonight. So basically, increasing frequency and intensity of the squalls, possibly some wind gusts up to 65 miles an hour in some of those rain bands, perhaps an isolated tornado or two. Unfortunately, these conditions go in through the daytime, hours tomorrow and of course, with the winds comes the tides. We’re expecting a small storm surge, but unfortunately, it’s not that hard to flood streets and make things impassable in the Keys, expecting one to three feet above ground level, this will occur on the ocean side tonight, after dark, and probably peak not too far around sunrise tomorrow, and then as the hurricane intensifies and grows larger in size, even though it will be moving away from us tomorrow afternoon, unfortunately, the Bayside and the Gulf side might rise, and that is while that devastating storm surge starts to evolve over the west coast of the peninsula of Florida. So generally, tropical storm conditions are in the cards, and that includes some flooding. For folks down in Key West, in terms of relative size of the surge, we’re thinking maybe about a foot less than what we experienced with Ian, maybe on the order of three feet above ground level, and some of those really low spots on the southwest side of the island. So that’s significant flooding. But depending on the level of flooding that some folks had in Ian, try to gage that. Just think about maybe it’ll be about a foot less, but still, that could get into some of the lowest lying homes.”
Is the water impact the biggest concern of this storm?
Rizzo said, “I would say that water obviously has a major impact. But right behind that would be the winds and some of these squalls, obviously here in the Keys we’re used to every year or so, getting tropical storm force winds, but this is a very large storm in size. Those tropical storm force winds in about another day or so are going to extend about 290 miles east of the of the center as the eye forms way out there over the eastern Gulf. This is an unusually large storm, probably expected to be among the top 10% in size for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico basin. So that’s why it has such a far reach. Even though the center of the core of the storms will be well west of us, a broad area of the same tropical storm force winds will evolve over the Strait and parts of the Keys. That’s why we get the big impact. Rainfall, not so much. It’s not the slowest mover. So thankfully, we shouldn’t have too much rainfall compounding on top of the tide, but obviously late tonight and through tomorrow, obviously not a good idea to be on the road. Also make sure you secure items that could be flooded, especially if you live in some of the lower parts of the Keys.”
Interestingly, the eye of the storm isn’t really the concern for us.
Rizzo said, “When this system gets into the Northeast Gulf, it is likely to be a major hurricane of at least category three strength and due to that large size and where it comes into that, what they call the Big Bend of Florida, where the coast curves and traps water, unfortunately, we’re going to be hearing about really devastating storm surge in that area. I know they were projecting upwards of at least 15 feet in some parts of that area, and that can actually travel miles inland.”
Reports showed that Taylor County was being evacuated.
Rizzo said, “Initially the landfall, you’ll have the devastating winds and the storm surge due to it’s expected to accelerate. Some of those winds around the core of the storm will probably go inland into Georgia. But I think the biggest impact as we get into the weekend, is going to be the rainfall. The system is expected to kind of hook to the north and northwest, and that will cause those strong, even as it decreases in intensity, getting tropical storm force winds to go up below the Appalachians is going to concentrate heavy rainfall upwards of about at least a foot in some of those areas, and so you’re probably going to be hearing about very damaging flooding up in the southeast for many days to come.”
Let’s have one more recap.
Rizzo said, “Helene is expected to become a hurricane today and move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and grow not just in intensity and size. We’re expecting our weather conditions to get worse as the day goes on, with tropical storm force winds expected to move into the Key West and Lower Keys area, maybe near or shortly after midnight tonight, and continuing as it spreads over the rest of the Keys, continuing throughout the day, Thursday and of course, on the ocean side, late tonight, early tomorrow, in the morning hours, probably a storm surge up to one to three feet above ground level, at the lowest spot, heavy wave action and overwash, and then maybe on the Gulf side and Bayside as we get later in the day, Thursday, even as the storm moves away. Friday, weather conditions will improve, but still a little bit rainy and squally. In terms of winds, it looks like the Upper Keys, Islamorada through Key Largo and Ocean Reef, probably a little less on the wind side, the squalls may be a little less frequent and of course, not as high in terms of surge in the water, but some of those locations up there on the bayside way up there, mile marker 103 through 106 and Manatee Bay, we’re going to watch closely. Even something like one to two feet could cause the streets to be impassable for a while. Again, we’re looking at that up in that part of the Keys, perhaps later in the day, Thursday and it won’t be until the storm moves inland by Thursday night and early Friday in the Northeast gulf that finally the waters will subside up there.”
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